Watch

Baltic Watch

Threat L1

State 2026-05-13 19:53

Threat STABLE

Active 0

Aircraft 40

News 19

Refresh 2026-05-13 19:53

Threat

Indicator board

Active 0

Mil aircraft 0

State 2026-05-13 19:53

Russian western garrison refilling (Pskov, Luga)

MIL

Large RU/BY exercises that do not end

MIL Context

NATO emergency or unscheduled consultations

NATO Context

US or UK embassy staff departing Moscow

DIPLO Context

NATO heavy armor surge to Poland or Baltics

NATO

Kaliningrad military activity spike

MIL

Baltic Sea naval repositioning (RU)

MARITIME

Infrastructure sabotage in Baltics

HYBRID

Cyber attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure

CYBER

RU state media naming Baltic targets

INFO Soft

Airspace violations increasing frequency

AIR

Lithuanian LT-Alert system activation

CIVIL

Unusual ADS-B gaps over Baltic Sea

AIR

Belarus troop movements toward LT border

MIL

Diplomatic expulsions or ambassador recalls

DIPLO Context

Aircraft

Air Picture

2026-05-13 19:53

ADS-B Exchange Flightradar24

Watch for: NATO ISR and transport surges from Siauliai, Amari, Malbork, and Lask; Russian military or Russian-registered aircraft in sensitive Baltic zones; and anomalous low-density traffic over the Baltic Sea.

Callsign	Country	Altitude	Velocity	Status
FIN1836	Finland	11,887 m	883 km/h	Airborne
BTI92L	Latvia	11,887 m	808 km/h	Airborne
RYR7JX	Poland	11,292 m	98 km/h	Airborne
NSZ2063	Sweden	11,277 m	864 km/h	Airborne
CES214	China	11,277 m	641 km/h	Airborne
CAO1160	China	11,277 m	845 km/h	Airborne
THY5YG	Turkey	10,668 m	943 km/h	Airborne
THY4HA	Turkey	10,668 m	902 km/h	Airborne
BTI3DV	Latvia	10,668 m	835 km/h	Airborne
CSC9612	China	10,668 m	843 km/h	Airborne
THY7DB	Turkey	10,668 m	62 km/h	Airborne
CCA958	China	10,668 m	854 km/h	Airborne
SVR168	Russian Federation	10,485 m	866 km/h	Airborne
THY9EC	Turkey	10,264 m	0 km/h	Airborne

Maritime

Maritime Picture

Map + chokepoints

MarineTraffic MyShipTracking Digitraffic Marine

Russian Military NATO Airbase EFP Battlegroup Infrastructure Risk

Watch for: Russian ship activity near Kaliningrad and Baltiysk, survey or shadow-fleet behavior near cable corridors, and any naval repositioning that changes access through Suwalki-adjacent and central Baltic choke points.

Satellite / Coordinates

Reference Points

Copernicus Data Browser

Sentinel imagery and EU-owned free orbital coverage.

Zoom.Earth

Fast near-real-time weather and thermal scan context.

Maxar Discover

High-resolution commercial imagery when needed.

Key Coordinates

Kaliningrad Garrison

54.7104N · 20.5128E

Map

Pskov Airbase (Russia)

57.7839N · 28.3956E

Map

Luga Garrison

58.7N · 29.8E

Map

Vitebsk Staging Area (BY)

55.2N · 30.2E

Map

Siauliai Air Base (LT)

55.8938N · 23.3932E

Map

Amari Air Base (EE)

59.2586N · 24.2083E

Map

Suwalki Gap

54.1N · 22.9E

Map

Signal Log

No log entries.

News

2026-05-13 19:53

ERR 2026-05-13T13:19:00+00:00

Estonia passes conscripts' B1 language proficiency requirement

The Riigikogu on Wednesday passed a law with 76 votes in favor requiring all conscripts entering compulsory military service to have at least B1-level proficiency in Estonian starting at the beginning of 2027.

LSM 2026-05-12T13:45:36+00:00

Latvia could offer aid for drone-damaged property

If a military drone damages private property, the government could offer some form of compensation, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa (New Unity) said on Tuesday. A discussion on this topic reportedly took place earlier this week during a coalition meeting

ERR 2026-05-12T12:36:00+00:00

Mart Parind: Estonia in the coma ward that is Europe

With the world being ripped apart at the seams, remaining meek in geopolitics and matters of defense is no longer an option for Europe. What we need is action, to put our foot down and demonstrate that Europe is not a museum over which a lethargic ha

LSM 2026-05-12T06:55:00+00:00

Sārts: Latvian reaction to drone incidents could be better

Recent drone incidents and the resignation of Defence Minister Andris Sprūds (Progressives) send a signal to the east that such actions can easily provoke Latvia and that "we currently lack an effective response," said Jānis Sārts, director of NATO’s

Bellingcat 2026-05-12T06:34:28+00:00

DRC’s Coltan Belt: Verifying Deadly Landslides At Mines Under M23 Control

Since the beginning of 2026, at least four landslides are reported to have killed hundreds of people at the Rubaya mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a major global source of coltan. Coltan is widely used in smartphones, laptops and e-v

ERR 2026-05-12T06:19:00+00:00

Nearly 1,000 reservists gather for Estonia's Spring Storm 2026 exercise

Close to 1,000 reservists arrived Monday for this year's large-scale military exercise Spring Storm.

ERR 2026-05-12T05:01:00+00:00

EDF chief: Defense industry still hasn't realized demand has increased

The war in Iran and subsequent U.S. weapons delivery delays are further proof the "traditional" defense industry has not yet realised demand has increased, said Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Andrus Merilo

Bellingcat 2026-05-11T14:26:49+00:00

Unearthing a Colombian Politician’s Connections to Neo-Nazi Active Club Group

This investigation is a collaboration between Bellingcat and Colombian media outlet Cerosetenta. You can read Cerosetenta’s piece in Spanish here. A video posted on Feb. 26 shows several men painting over graffiti in Restrepo, a neighbourhood in Bogo

ERR 2026-05-11T13:20:00+00:00

Minister: ARCA will produce munitions needed by the Estonian Defense Forces

Turkish company ARCA, which is building an ammunition plant in Estonia, has confirmed plans to begin producing long-range artillery ammunition used by the EDF, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.

LSM 2026-05-11T06:37:00+00:00

Progressives to ponder their stay in Latvia's coalition

Following the recent drone incidents in Latvian airspace, Defence Minister Andris Sprūds (Progressives) has resigned. His party plans to decide this week whether it will remain in the government's coalition, Latvian Television reported on May 10 even

LSM 2026-05-10T07:38:00+00:00

Three arrested for 'Victory Day' antics in Latvia

By 8 p.m., the police had initiated a total of 66 administrative violation proceedings related to the commemoration of Soviet soldiers. The majority, or 37 violations, were recorded in the digital environment, and 29 in public places.

LSM 2026-05-09T04:44:00+00:00

Another potential air threat overnight in Latvia's east

The National Armed Forces (NBS) reported in the early hours of Saturday morning that a warning was issued in Balvi, Alūksne,  Rēzekne and Ludza municipalities regarding a potential threat to airspace. A cell broadcasting alert was sent

Tweets

2026-05-13 19:53

@RALee85 2026-05-13T18:56:43+00:00

@RALee85

In the remaining Ukrainian 🇺🇦-controlled Donbas, Russia is currently pushing 3 offensives, on 3 key cities : Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, and Dobropilla. The Russian army has recently made some progress towards several key positions in the region. 🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️

@RALee85 2026-05-13T16:44:01+00:00

@RALee85

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia has launched 892 one-way attack drones (Geran, Gerbera, Italmas, and Parodia) at Ukraine overnight and today, including 753 drones from 0800-1830, in one of the biggest OWA drone attacks of the war. The focus is Western Ukraine, and th

@OSINTtechnical 2026-05-13T14:28:44+00:00

@OSINTtechnical

x.com/kromark/status/2054563…

@OSINTtechnical 2026-05-13T14:28:43+00:00

@OSINTtechnical

Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck Russia's Taman Black Sea oil export terminal overnight, setting storage tanks on fire and damaging a loading pier.

@RALee85 2026-05-13T09:46:07+00:00

@RALee85

Ukraine's military intelligence says Russia is currently conducting a combined air attack: "targets are critical infrastructure and life support facilities of large cities... energy sector, military-industrial complex enterprises, government buildings." https://t.me/DIUkraine/841

@MT_Anderson 2026-05-13T09:00:08+00:00

@MT_Anderson

12 MAY 2026 #Sentinel2 🛰️📷 17.2452, 116.1750 in South China Sea Likely 🇨🇳 PLA Navy Aircraft Carrier #Liaoning #CV16 @tom_bike @MT_Anderson @AndrewSErickson @detresfa_ @PLATracker @songs349 @TaiwanMonitor

@DefMon3 2026-05-13T07:33:07+00:00

@DefMon3

Today, there are 34 Tu-95MS at Ukrainka Air Base. On May 12 at 23:52 UTC, an An-124-100 arrived at Ukrainka Air Base. All five Il-78M have left the base.

@OSINTtechnical 2026-05-13T06:55:43+00:00

@OSINTtechnical

t.me/exilenova_plus/20482

@CalibreObscura 2026-05-12T21:25:14+00:00

@CalibreObscura

Really needs anashid

@CalibreObscura 2026-05-12T21:22:12+00:00

@CalibreObscura

Russian blackhats always have a sense of humour, tbf

@DefMon3 2026-05-12T18:04:59+00:00

@DefMon3

🔻 Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Ukrainka Air Base as of May 12, 03:07 UTC The air base housed 35 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 7 Tu-160M (Blackjack), and 3 Il-78M (Midas). Today, two Tu-95MS from Ukrainka Air Base were redeployed to Olenya Air Base. One Tu-95MS from Ukrainka Air Base was redeplo

@CalibreObscura 2026-05-12T10:53:09+00:00

@CalibreObscura

The most important AI lab in the world isn’t in San Francisco. It’s in Kyiv. 27,000 Shaheds last winter. 80+ models trained on real battlefield data through Brave1. A 95% interception target. Not a prototype. Not a pilot. Live, at scale, against a peer adversary. Silicon Valley t

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